Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network Models for Forecasting and Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatial-Temporal Data

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep learning models have become more common, RNNs have been used to forecast increasingly complicated systems. Dynamical spatio-temporal processes represent a class of complex systems that can potentially benefit from these types of models. Although the RNN literature is expansive and highly developed, uncertainty quantification is often ignored. Even when considered, the uncertainty is generally quantified without the use of a rigorous framework, such as a fully Bayesian setting. Here we attempt to quantify uncertainty in a more formal framework while maintaining the forecast accuracy that makes these models appealing, by presenting a Bayesian RNN model for nonlinear spatio-temporal forecasting. Additionally, we make simple modifications to the basic RNN to help accommodate the unique nature of nonlinear spatio-temporal data. The proposed model is applied to a Lorenz simulation and two real-world nonlinear spatio-temporal forecasting applications

Exploring the use of conversational agents to improve cyber situational awareness in the Internet of Things (IoT).

The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging paradigm, which aims to extend the power of the Internet beyond computers and smartphones to a vast and growing range of "things" - devices, processes and environments. The result is an interconnected world where humans and devices interact with each other, establishing a smart environment for the continuous exchange of information and services. Billions of everyday devices such as home appliances, surveillance cameras, wearables and doorbells, enriched with computational and networking capabilities, have already been connected to the Internet. However, as the IoT has grown, the demand for low-cost, easy-to-deploy devices has also increased, leading to the production of millions of insecure Internet-connected smart devices. Many of these devices can be easily exploited and leveraged to perform large-scale attacks on the Internet, such as the recently witnessed botnet attacks. Since these attacks often target consumer-level products, which commonly lack a screen or user interface, it can be difficult for users to identify signs of infection and be aware of devices that have been compromised. This thesis presents four studies which collectively explored how user awareness of threats in consumer IoT networks could be improved. Maintaining situational awareness of what is happening within a home network is challenging, not least because malicious activity often occurs in devices which are not easily monitored. This thesis evaluated the effectiveness of conversational agents to improve Cyber Situational Awareness. In doing so, it presented the first study to investigate their ability to help users improve their perception of smart device activity, comprehend this in the context of their home environment, and project this knowledge to determine if a threat had occurred or may occur in the future. The research demonstrated how a BLSTMRNN with word embedding could be used to extract semantic meaning from packets to perform deep packet inspection and detect IoT botnet activity. Specifically, how the models use of contextual information from both the past and future enabled better predictions to be made about the current state (packet) due to the sequential nature of the network traffic. In addition, a cross-sectional study examined users' awareness and perception of threats and found that, although users value security and privacy, they found it difficult to identify threats and infected devices. Finally, novel cross-sectional and longitudinal studies evaluated the use of conversational agents, and demonstrated them to be an effective and efficient method of improving Cyber Situational Awareness. In particular, this was shown to be true when using a multi-modal approach and combining aural, verbal and visual modalities

Dimensions of \u27socio\u27 vulnerabilities of advanced persistent threats

© 2019 University of Split, FESB. Advanced Persistent Threats (APT) are highly targeted and sophisticated multi-stage attacks, utilizing zero day or near zero-day malware. Directed at internetworked computer users in the workplace, their growth and prevalence can be attributed to both socio (human) and technical (system weaknesses and inadequate cyber defenses) vulnerabilities. While many APT attacks incorporate a blend of socio-technical vulnerabilities, academic research and reported incidents largely depict the user as the prominent contributing factor that can weaken the layers of technical security in an organization. In this paper, our objective is to explore multiple dimensions of socio factors (non-technical vulnerabilities) that contribute to the success of APT attacks in organizations. Expert interviews were conducted with senior managers, working in government and private organizations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over a period of four years (2014 to 2017). Contrary to common belief that socio factors derive predominately from user behavior, our study revealed two new dimensions of socio vulnerabilities, namely the role of organizational management, and environmental factors which also contribute to the success of APT attacks. We show that the three dimensions postulated in this study can assist Managers and IT personnel in organizations to implement an appropriate mix of socio-technical countermeasures for APT threats

Textbook Evaluation Toolkit

In Spring 2018, the LaGuardia Community College Library department was awarded a New York State grant to train students to evaluate textbooks. The goal of the project is to give faculty tools to help students evaluate the books being used in their classes. It is not expected that all of these tools will be used in a single class, but rather that faculty will use some of these tools to determine how textbooks are working, and not working, for their students. The seminar introduced students to the economics and politics of the textbook industry and gave them tools to evaluate textbooks. This repository contains the materials used during the seminar

Teaching Students to Critically Evaluate Textbooks

This chapter is a case study describing how library faculty combined service learning and information literacy to help students evaluate textbooks, comparing commercial ones to Open Education Resources. The underlying idea was to give students not only a scholarly grounding that would help them as they move through their academic careers but also a practical vocational orientation to help them succeed in the workforce and, hopefully, become future contributors to the free culture movement